Guyana is expected to compete with some of the world’s largest crude oil suppliers, including from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), for more market share next year as they all move to boost output. Benjamin Tang, head of liquid bulk at S&P Global Commodities at Sea, discussed the rise of non-OPEC crude supply during an October 24 episode of the Platts Oil Market Podcast.
Tang explained how Guyana, alongside other non-OPEC producers like the US, Canada, and Brazil, is challenging OPEC’s influence over global oil markets. According to Tang, “Brazil and Guyana [are] each expected to grow by about 100 to 150,000 barrels per day next year,” contributing significantly to non-OPEC supply growth, which is expected to total 1.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2025. This exceeds the anticipated demand growth of 1.3 million b/d projected by the International Energy Agency (IEA), which Tang explained complicates OPEC+’s strategy by creating heightened competition for market share in Europe and Asia.
Guyana among key threats to OPEC’s dominance, says IEA
Tang pointed out that OPEC+’s production cuts over the past two years opened up market space for non-OPEC exporters. He said, “Europe has brought in a lot of non-OPEC oil to offset the Russian crude that it’s backing away from.”
Tang’s analysis also indicated that these non-OPEC producers bring a “complete spectrum of grades” to the market, “from light sweet grades like US WTI and Midlands, to medium sweet grades like Brazil’s Lula and Tupi, to heavy sour grades such as Canada’s Western Cold Lake and Western Canadian Select.”
ExxonMobil’s output in Guyana has surged since it began oil production offshore in 2019, with current output reaching 660,000 b/d. Next year, the Yellowtail project will start production in the latter half of the year, with a capacity to produce 250,000 b/d.
A U.S. State Department official, Laura Lochman, said in October that fast-growing oil production offshore Guyana is reshaping energy markets. This rapid increase situates Guyana as a key player in non-OPEC production growth, making it increasingly difficult for OPEC to control prices. Guyana’s growth, alongside that of other non-OPEC suppliers, presents a direct challenge to OPEC+’s influence over the global market, with all these players now “jostling” for increased market share in 2025.
