In a bold move, Nigeria’s newly elected president Bola Ahmed Tinubu has publicly unveiled his administration’s ambitious plan to nearly double the country’s crude oil production. The goal is to escalate production from the 1.3 million barrels per day (mmbpd) recorded in 2022 to a formidable 2.6 mmbpd by the year 2027. Westwood Global Energy Group has expressed skepticism about the feasibility of such an ambitious target.
Westwood anticipates growth in Nigeria’s oil production but believes that the 2.6 mmbpd target may be “overly ambitious.” Their projections indicate a more moderate outlook, with oil production expected to reach approximately 1.9 mmbpd by 2030.
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Westwood said one significant factor contributing to this skepticism is the historical tendency of key projects, expected to bolster production, to experience delays. Such delays could potentially deal a lasting blow to Nigeria’s production ambitions. Among the noteworthy near-term offshore projects, TotalEnergies’ Preowei Phase I development is on the cusp of receiving approval, with an estimated production output of 65,000 barrels per day (bpd) anticipated to commence in 2026. In addition, Shell’s Bonga North project is expected to contribute an additional 120,000 bpd to Nigeria’s production capacity in 2027.
Further adding to the complexity of the situation, ExxonMobil’s Owowo and Bosi oil fields are currently estimated to begin production in 2029 and 2030, respectively. These projects hold the potential to significantly impact the country’s production levels.
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In the realm of gas production, there is a glimmer of hope as Shell’s HI and HA shallow water developments are set to come online in 2027 and 2029, respectively. If all of these projects progress as planned and remain on schedule, Nigeria’s oil and gas production could indeed reach a remarkable 2.6 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mmboepd) by the year 2030.
However, the road to achieving these targets remains fraught with challenges, including regulatory hurdles, funding constraints, and the unpredictability of global oil markets. Consequently, the nation’s energy sector finds itself at a critical juncture where prudent planning, efficient project management, and international collaboration will be essential to realise these ambitious production goals. Nigeria’s ability to navigate these obstacles will determine whether its oil and gas sector can truly rise to new heights in the coming years.
