Guyana is expected to be one of just two countries in the world to post double-digit economic growth in 2025, according to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) April World Economic Outlook.
The forecast, released under the theme A Critical Juncture Amid Policy Shifts, puts Guyana’s GDP growth at 10.3% this year, second only to Libya’s 17.3%, in a world grappling with geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty.
Both countries owe their forecasts to their respective oil sectors.
Since its first oil production in late 2019, Guyana has consistently recorded double-digit growth, and 2025 is expected to be no different. The country’s oil production is forecast to climb from an average of 616,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2024 to approximately 674,000 b/d this year, driven largely by the addition of the ONE GUYANA floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel. The FPSO arrived in early April 2025, and installation activities have since begun, with production expected to commence later this year.
The growth has fueled a construction boom and increased foreign investment in Guyana, as the government races to convert petroleum wealth into long-term development gains. With the majority of the country’s GDP now linked to oil, this production increase is expected to significantly drive overall economic output in 2025.
Contrasted with Libya, Guyana’s trajectory appears far more stable.
In Libya, economic growth is being propelled by a revival of oil output and exports following years of infrastructure disruptions and civil conflict. After resolving a major political crisis in 2024, including a power struggle over the country’s central bank, Libya achieved the largest increase in oil production among OPEC members. A Reuters survey showed that OPEC pumped 26.33 million b/d in October 2024, up 195,000 barrels from September, with Libya accounting for the largest share of the jump.
The National Oil Corporation (NOC) is hoping to build on this momentum in 2025. However, observers remain skeptical about the sustainability of the rebound.
S&P Global Commodity Insights cited a Tripoli-based industry source in December 2024 who warned that the current revival may be short-lived. Hamish Kinnear, a senior analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, offered a similarly cautious outlook, noting that while the sector is seeing its strongest performance since the 2011 civil war, with IOCs resuming exploration work, underlying political instability still poses a serious threat. Hafed Al-Ghwell, senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Institute of Johns Hopkins University’s SAIS, observed that Libya’s oil sector continues to serve as a microcosm of its political discord, with oil revenues underpinning almost all government spending.
The IMF stated that while the global economy has “stabilized with steady underwhelming growth rates” following a series of shocks, new uncertainties have emerged. Governments are realigning policy priorities in an environment marked by the highest effective tariff rates in a century, alongside declining multilateral cooperation. Global inflation is easing more slowly than previously anticipated, and escalating trade tensions are expected to constrain both short- and long-term growth potential, the IMF said.
“Scaling back international cooperation could jeopardize progress toward a more resilient global economy,” the IMF warned.
