Budget projections released by the Finance Ministry show that the Guyana government plans to sharply increase the amount of money it withdraws each year from its oil fund, with annual outflows projected to rise to about US$4.3 billion by 2029.
Appendix data to the national budget show planned withdrawals from the Natural Resource Fund (NRF) climbing from US$2.37 billion this year to US$2.62 billion in 2027, then to US$2.92 billion in 2028, before jumping to US$4.33 billion in 2029, reflecting the rapid growth in petroleum revenues expected to flow into the fund in preceding years.
The increases are driven by projected surges in oil-related deposits, which are composed mainly of royalties and sales of the government’s share of profit oil from offshore production. Under Guyana’s NRF law, withdrawals in any given year are determined by applying a tiered formula to petroleum revenues deposited in the previous year, rather than to the fund’s total balance.
Budget estimates show petroleum revenue deposits rising from US$3.08 billion in 2027 to US$6.35 billion in 2028, before reaching nearly US$7.93 billion in 2029, as new offshore oil projects ramp up production and export volumes expand. Applying the withdrawal rule to those inflows allows progressively larger drawdowns, even as a portion of revenues remains locked away as long-term savings.
The withdrawal formula permits the government to take 100% of the first US$1 billion deposited in the prior year, with declining percentages applied to each additional tier. While the structure is intended to smooth spending and protect accumulated savings, the sharp rise in projected deposits means allowable withdrawals still expand quickly as oil revenues grow.
Guyana has consistently withdrawn the maximum amount allowed by law since it began using oil revenues in 2022, and the budget projections suggest that approach will continue. By 2029, the planned US$4.33 billion withdrawal would be more than seven times the US$607 million first drawn from the fund in 2022.
Despite the higher withdrawals, the NRF balance is projected to continue increasing over the medium term. Budget figures show the fund’s closing balance rising from US$4.3 billion in 2027 to US$11.7 billion by the end of 2029.
All of Guyana’s oil production currently comes from the ExxonMobil-operated Stabroek Block, where output capacity now exceeds 900,000 barrels per day.
