ExxonMobil expects stronger liquids prices and margins to support its second-quarter 2026 results, even as Middle East-related disruptions are expected to affect several business segments.
The company outlined the factors in its second-quarter 2026 earnings considerations, filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on July 7. The update gives investors a view of market, planned, seasonal, and other items expected to affect second-quarter results compared with the first quarter.
ExxonMobil said the update is “not an estimate of 2Q 2026 earnings for the Corporation.” It noted that the quarter includes factors linked to the ongoing situation in the Middle East and related disruptions.
ExxonMobil reported US$4.2 billion in United States generally accepted accounting principles earnings for the first quarter of 2026. Its Upstream segment recorded US$5.7 billion, while Energy Products posted a US$1.3 billion loss. Chemical Products contributed approximately US$100 million and Specialty Products recorded US$700 million. Corporate and financing items recorded a US$1.1 billion loss.
The company’s adjusted earnings for the first quarter were US$8.8 billion.
The strongest expected positive impact in the second quarter is from liquids prices. ExxonMobil estimates that changes in liquids prices could lift Upstream results by US$3.5 billion to US$3.9 billion. Changes in gas prices could range from a US$200 million negative impact to a US$200 million positive impact.
Margins are also expected to support results. ExxonMobil estimates margin changes could add US$2 billion to US$2.4 billion in Upstream, US$1 billion to US$1.2 billion in Energy Products, and US$300 million to US$500 million in Chemical Products.
The company also listed expected impacts from scheduled maintenance. Maintenance could reduce Energy Products earnings by up to US$200 million and Chemical Products earnings by US$200 million to US$400 million. Upstream and Specialty Products impacts from maintenance could each range from a US$100 million negative impact to a US$100 million positive impact.
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Volume-related disruptions from Middle East events are expected to reduce Upstream results by US$600 million to US$800 million. Energy Products could see a US$200 million to US$400 million negative impact. Specialty Products could see a US$100 million to US$300 million negative impact. Chemical Products could range from a US$100 million negative impact to a US$100 million positive impact.
ExxonMobil also listed second-quarter adjusting items. Impairments could reduce Energy Products results by US$800 million to US$1 billion and corporate and financing results by up to US$200 million. Other items, including reserves, could reduce Upstream results by US$1.2 billion to US$1.4 billion, with smaller impacts across other segments.
The company said timing effects occur when financial derivatives are marked to period-end prices while related physical shipments are reflected in earnings when transactions are completed. It noted that crude and products trading activity accounted for most of the timing impacts in the second quarter and is included in the Energy Products segment.
ExxonMobil holds a 45% interest in Guyana’s Stabroek Block. Hess holds 30%, while CNOOC holds 25%.
