In its July Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecast the Brent crude oil price will average $72 per barrel (b) in the second half of 2021 (2H21) and $67/b in 2022, both $6/b higher than in the June STEO forecast.
This would see exports from Guyana, averaging around 1 million barrels of Liza crude per lift, bringing in revenues of approximately US$72 million each for the remainder of 2021.
In the July STEO, IEA forecast the Brent crude oil price will average $73/b in the third quarter of 2021 (3Q21) and will fall to average $71/b in the fourth quarter of 2021 (4Q21). Also in the July STEO, IEA forecast the Brent crude oil price will fall from an average of $69/b in 2021 (up from $65/b in the June forecast) to $67/b in 2022 (up from $60/b in the June forecast). IEA said it also expects West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will likely follow a similar path. WTI crude prices are forecast in the July STEO to average $71/b in 3Q21, $6/b higher than in the June STEO. The July STEO expects WTI prices to be $68/b in 4Q21, up $7/b from the June forecast.
The Brent crude oil price averaged $73/b in June 2021, up $5/b from May. June was the first month when the Brent price averaged more than $70/b since May 2019. “We expect moderate downward oil price pressures will emerge beginning in 2H21, when forecast global oil production will rise, causing inventories to draw at a slower pace,” IEA stated.
On July 3, 2021, the Guyana government exported 1,047,820 barrels of Liza crude valuing US$79,617,561.87. This brings the total volume of oil exported by the government to date to 7,056,262 since production began in December 2019. This has earned the country well over US$400 million when royalty payments are taken into account.
