S&P Global estimates that recoverable resources of 18.7 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) have been discovered in the Guyana Basin since 2015.
S&P Global Commodity Insights analysts Fernanda Machado, Mariana Anjos and Jerry Jarvis said in a May report, “In just nine years, it has established itself as the fifth largest [basin] in Latin America, while continuing to grow.”
They expect production to peak in 2037 at 2.3 million boe/d, with oil accounting for 90%.
Thus far, ExxonMobil is expected to add three projects to the three already producing offshore Guyana. This is expected to more than double production from the current 630,000 barrels per day (b/d) to a capacity of more than 1.3 million b/d by 2027. A seventh project, planned to produce in 2029, is in the application phase and could lift production above 1.5 million b/d.
In Suriname, TotalEnergies expects to submit a plan to the government for a 200,000 b/d oil development. This project is expected to see first oil in 2028.
The S&P analysts said, “High-quality, low-emissions and cost-effective barrels have already reached European markets… Currently, all gas production is associated with oil and reinjected, but the marketed gas is expected to increase.”
First production from Guyana’s Gas-to-Energy project is expected in 2025. An initial rate of 50 million cubic feet of gas per day (cf/d) is expected, with potential to increase to as much as 120-130 million cf/d after studies. The project is mainly for domestic power generation and marketing of natural gas liquids (NGL) to partners in the region.
S&P said the project is expected to have a “significant” impact on power generation in Guyana. The analysts say there is potential for the region to become an LNG exporter by the second half of the 2030s, with deployment of two floating LNG vessels.
The Guyana government has selected U.S. start-up Fulcrum LNG to contemplate a larger gas development in partnership with Exxon. The Suriname government granted a 10-year tax break to Block 52 partners, encouraging development of the significant gas finds.
S&P said more than US$120 billion in present value should be spent in the basin, with five main companies estimated to account for 94% of all investments. The five companies (ExxonMobil, Hess, CNOOC, APA, and TotalEnergies) are the stakeholders in the Stabroek Block in Guyana and Block 58 in Suriname.
