Guyana is poised for a significant uptick in oil production within the next decade, amidst a seismic shift in global oil supplies, according to the 2023 edition of the Energy Outlook report by British multinational oil and gas company, BP. The report details an ongoing transformation in the composition of global oil supplies.
Amid generally declining production trends, Guyana, along with Brazil, shows promising growth in output. The two South American countries are expected to increase oil production over the next decade, with Guyana’s output reaching approximately 2 million barrels per day (Mb/d) and Brazil peaking at around 5 Mb/d by the mid-2030s.
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US production is set to decline throughout the 2030s and 40s as its tight oil formations mature. This is accompanied by a strategic shift in OPEC’s approach, becoming more competitive amidst accelerating declines in oil demand. OPEC is expected to enhance its global oil production share to between 45-65% by 2050 across all three scenarios mentioned in the report.
The three scenarios used by bp are Accelerated, Net Zero, and New Momentum, and they each refer to projections for the reduction of global carbon emissions.
In contrast, in two of bp’s three scenarios, Russia is predicted to experience a substantial reduction in output over the forecast period, falling from around 11.5 Mb/d in 2019 to between 5.5-6.5 Mb/d in 2035, and to 2.5 Mb/d or less by 2050. The reductions in New Momentum are less pronounced, with Russian production falling to around 8.5 Mb/d and 7 Mb/d in 2035 and 2050 respectively.
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The report also mentions that non-OPEC production, with its higher cost structure, is anticipated to bear between 75-85% of the fall in oil production by 2050 in the Accelerated and Net Zero scenarios. Virtually all the reduction in the New Momentum scenario is expected to be borne by non-OPEC suppliers.
As such, the anticipated increase in Guyana’s oil production comes at a time of significant change in the global oil industry. The country’s growth in this sector provides an opportunity to seize a greater market share as other prominent players witness declining trends.
