Brent crude prices could climb as high as US$135 per barrel if the current geopolitical tensions disrupt oil supplies for several months, according to Jorge León, Head of Geopolitical Analysis at Rystad Energy.
León outlined the potential price paths in a LinkedIn post on March 9, as markets assess the impact of the ongoing conflict affecting energy flows through the Middle East. “How high can oil go?” León wrote.
The Strait of Hormuz has become a central concern for energy markets during the conflict. The narrow waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman handles a large share of global oil exports.
The last time oil prices were this high was the 2022 Ukraine war | OilNOW
“Around 16 million barrels per day of crude exports normally move through the Strait of Hormuz — one of the most critical energy chokepoints on the planet,” León said. “Even partial disruptions ripple across the entire oil market.”
León said Rystad Energy’s analysis points to two possible price outcomes depending on how long supply disruptions persist.
“Short conflict (~2 months): Brent could climb above $110 bbl [per barrel] by May before easing as supply flows normalize,” he wrote. “Longer disruption (~4 months): Prices could spike toward $135/bbl by June if supply losses persist.”
Other analysts have also warned that prices could move sharply higher if shipments through the Gulf remain constrained. JPMorgan has estimated that Brent crude could reach about US$120 per barrel under a sustained disruption scenario linked to the conflict.
León said elevated prices could also influence fuel consumption worldwide. “But high prices come with consequences,” he wrote. “As Brent approaches or exceeds $100/bbl, demand destruction begins to emerge. Airlines adjust capacity, consumers reduce fuel use, and emerging markets feel the pressure first.”
He said the conflict could slow global oil demand growth this year compared with earlier expectations.
“Before the conflict, global oil demand was expected to grow by around one million b/d in 2026,” León said. “Under our scenarios, that growth slows to around 750 thousand b/d [barrel per day] if the conflict lasts two months, and to close to 450 thousand b/d in a longer four-month disruption.”
