ExxonMobil in an 8-K filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), said higher crude prices could lift upstream earnings by up to US$2.3 billion in the first quarter of 2026, compared with the fourth quarter of 2025.
The company reported fourth-quarter earnings of US$6.5 billion under U.S. GAAP. Earnings excluding identified items were US$7.3 billion.
ExxonMobil stated that the outlook reflects “significant planned activities, market dynamics, and seasonal demand patterns,” and includes “additional factors associated with the ongoing situation in the Middle East and related disruptions.”
The company estimates a positive impact of US$1.9 billion to US$2.3 billion from liquids prices and US$200 million to US$600 million from gas prices in its upstream segment.
Industry margins are expected to vary across segments. Upstream could see an impact ranging from no change to a US$400 million increase. Energy products are projected to range between a US$100 million loss and a US$100 million gain, while chemical products are expected to decline by US$200 million to US$400 million.
Timing effects are expected to weigh on earnings. ExxonMobil estimates an impact of US$200 million to US$800 million in upstream and US$3.3 billion to US$4.1 billion in energy products.
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Scheduled maintenance is expected to reduce energy products earnings by US$400 million to US$600 million, with smaller impacts across other segments. Fewer days in the first quarter are expected to reduce upstream earnings by US$200 million to US$400 million and energy products by up to US$200 million.
The absence of year-end inventory effects is expected to lower energy products earnings by about US$300 million.
Middle East-related disruptions are expected to impact volumes and earnings. ExxonMobil estimates upstream impacts of US$300 million to US$500 million and energy products impacts of US$100 million to US$300 million. Additional impacts tied to the region are projected at US$600 million to US$800 million.
The company stated the summary “is not comprehensive of all changes between 4Q 2025 and 1Q 2026 results and is not an estimate of 1Q 2026 earnings for the Corporation.”
ExxonMobil holds a 45% interest in Guyana’s Stabroek Block. Hess holds 30%, while CNOOC holds 25%. ExxonMobil will release its full first-quarter earnings report on 1 May.
