New projections by the International Energy Agency (IEA) see Latin America’s oil production increasing by 25% by 2028. Guyana and Brazil are among those leading this growth.
“Oil-producing countries outside the OPEC+ alliance dominate plans for increasing global supply capacity in the medium term, with an expected rise of 5.1 million barrels per day by 2028 led by the United States, Brazil and Guyana,” the IEA outlined in its June Forecast to 2028.
According to the January monthly oil market report from OPEC, Guyana is expected to significantly increase its crude oil production by approximately 90,000 barrels per day (bpd). This surge in output would propel Guyana’s 2023 production to 32 million barrels more than the 101 million barrels produced in 2022 by ExxonMobil-operated projects.
OPEC has identified Guyana as one of the key non-OPEC producers that will play a vital role in driving supply growth. The other countries on this list include the United States, Norway, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan, Mexico, and Russia. Collectively, these seven nations are projected to add around 1.54 million bpd to global oil production.
Several developments are expected offshore Guyana in coming years which will further boost crude oil production. A new project called Payara is also expected to achieve first oil this year.
The Liza Phases 1 and 2 developments started the year with production at 140,000 bpd and 220,000 bpd respectively. The Liza Destiny and Unity had a combined production average of 297,000 bpd for 2022. Exxon plans to optimise Phase 2 to about 250,000 bpd.
Over in Brazil, Petrobras said that its average oil, natural gas liquids (NGL), and natural gas production reached 2.68 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (MMboed) in the first quarter of 2023. This represents a 1.1% increase from the previous quarter, mainly due to production ramp-up of the P-71 vessel in Itapu field and the start-up of eight new wells in Campos Basin and higher production efficiencies in the platforms. And this is only expected to increase as Petrobras executes its plan to add 18 production vessels in its pre-salt fields.
According to the IEA’s Oil 2023 medium-term market report, global oil demand is projected to increase by 6% from 2022 to 2028, reaching 105.7 million barrels per day (mb/d). This growth will be driven by strong demand from the petrochemical and aviation sectors. However, despite this overall increase, annual demand growth is anticipated to decline significantly from 2.4 mb/d this year to only 0.4 mb/d in 2028, indicating that a peak in demand is on the horizon.
