Experts in the hydrocarbon industry believe that more oil could be discovered closer to Guyana’s shoreline in the coming years, raising the possibility of facilities being developed on land to process this commodity.
Trinidad and Tobago’s former Minister of Energy, Kevin Ramnarine says the principle of the “Creaming Curve” points to this and believes that discoveries made to date in the Stabroek block located 120 miles offshore Guyana is merely the tip of the iceberg.
According to Drillinginfo; creaming curves measure incremental production from wells in the order in which they are drilled. Various production metrics can be used such as peak rate, six month cumulative oil, and twelve month cumulative oil. If a creaming curve has a 45 degree trajectory, each new well produces the same peak month production as the previous well did. A steeper trajectory indicates new wells are adding increasingly greater peak month production.
“If we believe in the creaming curve…we know that Guyana will find more and more oil and we begin to find more and more oil closer and closer to the shoreline. So it is very possible that Guyana will have industries on the land to process that oil,” Ramnarine told a large gathering at a lecture organized by the Guyana Oil and Gas Association held at the Pegasus Hotel in Guyana’s capital, Georgetown, in January.
The former minister said he believes that Guyanese will only benefit if industries are established in the country to go downstream of oil and gas.
The oil and gas industry is usually divided into three major sectors: upstream, midstream and downstream. The downstream sector commonly refers to the refining of petroleum crude oil and the processing and purifying of raw natural gas, as well as the marketing and distribution of products derived from crude oil and natural gas. The downstream sector reaches consumers through products such as gasoline or petrol, kerosene, jet fuel, diesel oil, heating oil, fuel oils, lubricants, waxes, asphalt, natural gas, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) as well as hundreds of petrochemicals.
Ramnarine’s comments echo that of Canadian oil and gas expert, Rob Strong, who is confident that several more significant oil discoveries will be made in Guyana. During an exclusive interview with OilnNow affiliate; NewsNow, Strong said the discovery at the Liza-2 Well by Exxon, which amounts to “800 million to 1.4 billion barrels of oil”, is viewed in the industry as an “elephant.”
“Liza 1, 2 and 3, which, depending on who you listen to, contain between 800 million and 1.4 billion barrels of oil. In my world that’s an elephant and in geological basins, I use the expression; elephants don’t travel alone, so I am very certain there are more Lizas,” Strong said.