Guyana is projected to receive US$9.2 billion in revenue from oil sales and royalties in 2030, according to a Rystad Energy analysis.
The energy research firm contrasted this with the US$155 million it said Guyana got in 2020 – the first full year of crude oil production. The increase in revenue is due to the expansion of production and a rebound in prices from the pandemic era of the early 2000s.
Government’s take of oil sales is based on a deal that permits the oil companies to take up to 75% of annual production to recover expenses, then split the remainder 50/50 with the government. Guyana also gets a quarterly royalty payment of 2% of all crude produced and sold.
Rystad Energy’s projection, based on a long-term oil price assumption of US$70 per barrel of Brent crude, shows overall revenue from oil in 2030 amounting to US$32 billion.
This would mean Guyana’s take increases from approximately 14.5% currently, to 28.75% in 2030. That implies that the companies will need less than 75% of production to recoup costs in 2030, leaving more ‘profit oil’. The Stabroek Block co-venturers (ExxonMobil, Hess, CNOOC) would have US$22.8 billion of crude to divide among themselves.
Production in the first 11 months of 2024 averaged 612,000 barrels per day (b/d), with revenue received in the period totaling US$2.4 billion. Government projected more than US$2.6 billion in the full year.
All production is from three projects—Liza 1, Liza 2 and Payara. A fourth will begin production this year. The Yellowtail project will add 250,000 b/d to production capacity.
The Uaru and Whiptail projects have also been sanctioned and are due to add another 500,000 b/d by 2027. Two more projects have not been sanctioned and are being pursued to add nearly 400,000 b/d more by 2030.
Total production capacity would be about 1.8 million b/d by 2030. Rystad’s analysis mentioned a conservative assumption of 1.1 million b/d.
ExxonMobil operates the Stabroek Block with a 45% stake, while Hess has 30% and CNOOC has 25%.
