The Guyana government projects an increase in the rate of crude oil production offshore from 616,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2024 to 674,000 b/d this year. The projected increase will mainly be due to the start-up of ExxonMobil’s Yellowtail project, expected later this year.
However, the 9% increase in the rate of production is not expected to increase earnings, due to lower oil prices forecasted for the year. While Guyana’s share of crude sold at an average of US$79.40 per barrel in 2024, the government expects an average of US$71.90 per barrel for its crude this year. Accordingly, crude oil generated an export value of US$17.99 billion in 2024 but is projected to generate US$17.61 billion this year.
Guyana is expected to receive US$2.5 billion in revenue from oil sales and royalties in 2025, down from US$2.57 billion in 2024. Government revenue from oil sales is projected to decrease slightly from US$2.22 billion to US$2.16 billion, while royalties are expected to experience a similarly marginal dip from US$348 million to US$341 million.
The decline in government revenue will result in a decline in oil revenue available for withdrawal in 2026. Applicable law ties withdrawals for spending in any year to deposits made in the prior year. While US$2.463 billion is expected to be withdrawn from the oil fund this year, the government expects US$2.403 to be available for withdrawal next year.
