An International Monetary Fund staff team led by Ana Guscina visited Port of Spain and Scarborough from January 27 to February 9, 2026, for the 2026 Article IV consultation with Trinidad and Tobago’s authorities. The mission issued its concluding statement on February 10, 2026, in Washington, DC.
IMF staff said the economy “is gradually recovering to pre-pandemic levels amid persistent headwinds.” They said “stagnant production in the mature energy sector has weighed on activity.”
The economy is estimated to have grown by 0.8% in 2025, driven by non-energy sectors. Real GDP growth is projected to moderate to 0.7% in 2026, “as stronger growth in the non-energy sector partly offsets an anticipated decline in energy production.”
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Medium-term growth prospects are expected to improve as “several new energy projects, most notably Manatee, come onstream, lifting growth to around 2.9% in 2027 and 3.5% in 2028.”
They warned that “domestic risks to growth and the external sector stem from lower oil and gas production, which could result from disruptions in mature fields or delays in new projects.” They added that “there is a positive momentum in the energy sector with deepwater exploration activity and potential regional agreements, which are not included in staff’s baseline until final investment decisions are announced.”
The new administration, which took office in May 2025, is “focusing on revitalizing the energy sector through facilitating work on mature fields, deepwater exploration, and fostering regional collaboration with Suriname, Guyana, and Venezuela.”
IMF staff said “oil and gas revenues have long underpinned economic development and will continue to support medium-term growth, fiscal revenue, and export earnings.”
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The Manatee Gas Field is located in Trinidad and Tobago’s East Coast Marine Area (ECMA), one of the country’s most prolific gas-producing zones. The project reached its final investment decision in July 2024 and is led by Shell.
Gas from Manatee will serve as backfill for Trinidad’s Atlantic LNG facility, supporting increased utilization of existing infrastructure.
Production from the field is expected to begin in 2027, with output projected to peak at around 104,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (604 million standard cubic feet of gas per day).
