Norway-based Rystad Energy recently examined how an accelerated transition to cleaner fuel sources could impact oil and gas suppliers. Using its own data-driven forecasts for energy supply, the energy research and business intelligence company concluded that a rise of 1.6°C versus pre-industrial levels can still be a likely trajectory for global temperatures, although at present the world is heading towards a larger increase.
“Looking deeper into what type of fields are likely to be developed – whether they be oil or gas, involve subsea, floating or grounded offshore facilities, be they conventional or unconventional projects – makes it possible to analyse how various service segments will develop in different scenarios,” Rystad Energy said. “For each of the major five service segments in oilfield services, we can compute the likely compound annual growth rates in the next three decades to see which segments are likely to prove the most resilient.”
Between 2020 and 2030, the subsea product lines are the one that are likely to fare best, potentially even posting growth in a 1.6-degree scenario.
“With the major deepwater successes in Brazil and Guyana, subsea equipment and SURF will see major demand growth as these growing oil economies are heavily dependent on their fossil fuel resources in the current decade,” Rystad Energy said.
The maintenance, modifications and operations (MMO) and engineering, procurement, construction and installation (EPCI) sectors are where it expects growth to occur in all three climate scenarios – 1.6°C, 1.8°C and 2.0°C – in this decade as greenfield projects being prioritized by exploration and production operators in the next five years.
Guyana has a string of major projects underway and in the pipeline at the giant ExxonMobil-operated Stabroek Block. Liza 1 began producing oil in late 2019 and Phase 2 is set to come on stream early next year. A third project at Payara is already approved and a fourth at Yellowtail is waiting the greenlight from local authorities. All told, these projects will deliver over 800,000 barrels of oil per day by mid-decade.
