The world’s 30 largest oil and gas companies must find 22 million barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2040 to maintain their market share, according to a February 26 report by Wood Mackenzie.
The group, which includes ExxonMobil, currently produces approximately 50 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, supplying nearly 30% of global demand. However, output from their existing commercial projects is projected to decline by almost 40% between 2025 and 2040.
“The latest report from Wood Mackenzie expects production from current commercial projects for these 30 companies to fall nearly 40% between 2025 and 2040. Companies will need to deploy every tool in the business development playbook to square the circle,” the report said.
Wood Mackenzie said filling the 22 million b/d gap is “the equivalent to adding nearly two Permian basins or 14 Guyana-scale plays”.
“Big Oil is recalibrating back to upstream, but years of reduced activity have left many oil and gas companies with production profiles more aligned with net zero pathways than the higher-for-longer scenario that is playing out,” Neivan Boroujerdi, Director, Corporate Research at Wood Mackenzie, said.
“The core strategic challenge is how to sustain output and cash flow when reinvestment rates are roughly half of mid-2010s levels,” he added.
The Wood Mackenzie analysis shows that enhanced recovery from existing fields could unlock 470 billion barrels globally. It also pointed to technology and creative capital structures as part of the solution.
ExxonMobil was cited as an example. The report said ExxonMobil’s Permian strategy “demonstrates how proprietary technology can boost recovery factors and reduce unproductive capital to drive breakevens down.”
On February 17, during the fifth edition of the Guyana Energy Conference and Supply Chain Expo, Simon Flowers, Chairman of Wood Mackenzie, described Guyana as a key contributor to global oil production at a time when the industry faces a critical need for additional supply.
“The industry will need an additional 20 million barrels per day of new supply by the middle of the next decade,” Flowers said. “Guyana has been a blessing, coming along just at the right time.”
Guyana remains among the world’s fastest-growing oil producers. Production averaged about 716,000 b/d in 2025, driven by ExxonMobil’s Stabroek Block with co-venturers Hess and CNOOC. When the fifth project, Uaru, comes on stream, production will exceed 1 million b/d by 2027.
According to Flowers, Guyana is projected to make the second-largest contribution to non-OPEC production growth over the next decade, behind only Brazil. He also emphasized the low-cost, high-value nature of the discoveries. “These ‘advantage barrels’ have a break-even cost of about US$26 per barrel, making them highly resilient to market fluctuations.”
