OPEC’s latest Oil Market Report offers an optimistic view of the global oil market. The organization has revised its 2024 global economic growth forecast slightly higher to 2.9%. This adjustment is due to stronger-than-expected performances in key economies like Brazil, Russia, India, and China, as well as a recovery in the eurozone.
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OPEC maintains its oil demand growth forecast at 2.2 million barrels per day (b/d) for 2024. This reflects solid usage supported by economic growth and increased air travel. On the supply side, OPEC has kept its non-OPEC+ liquids supply growth estimate at 1.23 million b/d for 2024 and 1.10 million b/d for 2025, driven primarily by the United States, Canada, and Brazil.
In June, OPEC+ crude production fell by 125,000 b/d to 40.8 million b/d, which is 2.3 million b/d below OPEC’s projected demand. This production restraint, combined with solid demand, suggests a potential supply deficit in the coming months.
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OPEC’s projections contrast sharply with those of the International Energy Agency (IEA). While OPEC expects robust demand growth, the IEA forecasts growth of only 960,000 b/d in 2024. The IEA also predicts that global oil demand will peak at 106 million b/d by 2029, reflecting a shift toward greener energies and a decline in oil use for road transportation.
