Venezuela’s national referendum on the Guyana border controversy is the latest in a series of actions from the Maduro regime in support of its claim to more than two-thirds of Guyana’s territory.
But Director of Energy at Americas Market Intelligence (AMI), Arthur Deakin, believes that nothing will materialize.
“I really do not see that much as a threat, because the U.S. would never let it happen,” he told OilNOW on October 24.
Deakin does not believe that President Maduro would risk hampering his country’s revival.
For years, Venezuela has been faced with a struggling economy and a near-dead oil sector because of U.S. sanctions. But things have been on the up and up recently. Its production, according to Deakin has shot up to over 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) thanks to reliefs granted by the U.S. In fact, the latest ease of sanctions see the country being allowed to export its crude oil freely for six months. This was after it agreed to have its current electoral process monitored by international observers.
“[So] definitely, the U.S. would not tolerate any aggression, any military action in the region between Venezuela and Guyana,” he continued.
He said President Maduro “is smart enough” to realize that any action will put them “[on] the back foot against the U.S,” and he certainly, does not want this to occur with Venezuela’s economy on the mend again.
“… this topic will kind of recede in the background but I could always be wrong,” he added as a disclaimer.
Venezuela’s new wave of threats began just a day after Guyana announced the results of its first offshore oil auction. Public statements attacking the country and oil companies that participated in the bid round were consecutive. Things peaked when Venezuela passed a motion in its national assembly reaffirming its territorial claim over Guyana’s Essequibo region and increased troop movement at the shared border. Then came the national referendum questions.
Its latest statement was published on October 24 on X (formerly Twitter) by Chancellor, Yvan Gil in response to Guyana’s rejection of the referendum. They said Guyana’s statement is laced with “contempt” for Venezuelans.
Guyana’s government has expressed profound concern over Venezuela’s actions, viewing them as potentially escalating tensions between the two nations. To resolve the territorial controversy, Guyana firmly holds that the appropriate platform is the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague. The ICJ has affirmed its jurisdiction twice to settle the controversy, offering the potential for a final, binding, and equitable solution in accordance with international law.
Notably, the United States, CARICOM, the Commonwealth of Nations and the Organization of American States (OAS) have publicly condemned Venezuela’s recent aggressive actions. Brazil has expressed to Guyana, its support for the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to resolve the controversy.
