ExxonMobil expects lower crude and natural gas prices will weigh on its second quarter 2025 earnings, according to its latest 8-K filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) released ahead of results due August 1.
The company estimates that lower liquids prices will impact upstream earnings by between US$0.8 billion and US$1.2 billion relative to the first quarter. It also sees natural gas prices reducing earnings by US$0.3 billion to US$0.7 billion.
First-quarter 2025 earnings totaled US$7.7 billion, with upstream contributing US$6.8 billion. Energy Products, Chemical Products, and Specialty Products contributed US$0.8 billion, US$0.3 billion, and US$0.7 billion, respectively. Corporate and Financing showed a US$0.8 billion loss.
Exxon also noted market-driven changes in industry margins could moderately offset pricing losses. Upstream margins may see a gain of US$0.1 billion to US$0.5 billion, while downstream and chemicals are expected to experience smaller shifts.
Timing effects from unsettled derivatives and inventory accounting could range from a US$0.3 billion loss to a US$0.1 billion gain in the upstream segment. Simply put, because of delays in how some oil and gas trades are recorded and the way inventory is valued, ExxonMobil’s upstream (oil and gas production) profits could either go down by as much as US$0.3 billion or go up by as much as US$0.1 billion in the second quarter.
Planned maintenance across energy products, chemicals, and specialty products is projected to have mixed effects, ranging from minor losses to modest gains. The company emphasized that these estimates exclude factors such as operating performance, currency impacts, and unplanned downtime. The final figures will be determined upon completion of the quarterly financial reporting process.
Exxon’s rival Shell, on July 7, warned that its Q2 integrated gas trading and optimization business would be significantly lower than Q1.
ExxonMobil holds a 45% interest in Guyana’s Stabroek Block. Hess holds 30%, while CNOOC holds 25%.
