ExxonMobil is warning that “sustained investments are more important than ever” in oil and gas, with its newly released Global Outlook report projecting a dangerous mismatch between supply and demand if capital dries up.
The report, titled ‘Our view to 2050’, was released on Thursday and stresses that oil wells “naturally decline over time”. It explained that without new drilling and technological upgrades, production could decline by 15% each year. ExxonMobil stated, “By 2030, this approach would leave the world undersupplied by about 70 million barrels per day (b/d) – likely triggering massive supply shortages, skyrocketing prices, and unemployment that surpasses levels last seen during the Great Depression of the 1930s.”
Even with limited spending on existing fields only, supply would still fall short, dropping about 4% annually, leaving the market well below global demand in every major scenario studied by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and International Energy Agency (IEA).
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ExxonMobil expects oil demand to rise modestly from about 100 million barrels per day at present to roughly 105 million barrels per day by 2050. Even in lower-emission pathways, consumption would still hover near 65 million barrels daily – “about two thirds of current consumption.” Under more robust growth scenarios, demand could surge to 120 million barrels, or 20% higher than today.
Gas faces a similar trajectory. Without new investment, global supply would plunge by 11% a year, creating a shortfall of 250 billion cubic feet per day by 2030, equal to half of projected demand. ExxonMobil projects the liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade will more than double by 2050, with Asia Pacific accounting for 70% of growth as it seeks “dependable, lower-emission energy sources to foster economic growth”.
Technology remains ExxonMobil’s counterweight to decline, with U.S. tight oil cited as a case study. Hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling pushed U.S. output from 5 million barrels a day in 2008 back above 10 million, where it has remained since 2017. The company highlights that since 2010, “the average lateral length of wells in the Permian has increased more than 2.5x”, while completion intensity quadrupled, driving efficiency gains.
For Exxon, the stakes are particularly high in regions where it has been expanding aggressively. Guyana has become one of its flagship growth centers, with the Stabroek Block already producing more than 650,000 b/d and expected to exceed 1.3 million b/d by 2027. Exxon has also deepened its footprint in the Caribbean by securing a production-sharing contract in Trinidad and Tobago’s deepwater acreage.
ExxonMobil noted: “Sustained investment in finding and developing new resources is required to fill the gap between supply and projected global demand for both oil and gas through 2050.”
