The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) April 2024 World Economic Outlook report revealed Guyana to be the only country in the Western Hemisphere that is forecasted to experience double-digit economic growth in 2024.
Themed ‘Steady But Slow: Resilience Amid Divergence’, the institution’s outlook indicates that Guyana’s gross domestic product (GDP) will grow 33.9% in 2024. This is a 7.3 percentage point increase from the forecast of 26.6% indicated by the IMF in its 2023 Article IV Consultation Report published last December.
Guyana is also expected to grow 18.7% in 2025 and 11.5% in 2026.
Guyana’s growth is largely attributed to increasing oil production offshore at the Stabroek Block. Specifically, the Payara project achieved first oil in November 2023 and ramped up to exceed its target production of 220,000 barrels per day (b/d) by January. Exxon plans to optimize production at this project to as much as 250,000 b/d. Three projects are operating simultaneously, which currently can produce more than 650,000 b/d.
While production averaged 391,000 b/d in 2023, it averaged 614,000 b/d in the first two months of 2024. And the average continues to move upward. At this rate, Guyana could produce more than 220 million barrels for export to thirsty markets in 2024. The Guyana government expects oil exports to generate US$16.8 billion this year.
The IMF credited Guyana as one of the key countries that helped balance demand and supply in upstream markets. The institution said that the implementation of output curbs by OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus selected nonmember countries, including Russia) was more than offset by strong output growth in Iran and non-OPEC countries, led by the United States, Brazil, and Guyana.
