Guyana’s government may collect less oil revenue in 2025 than it initially projected, following the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) downward revision of global crude price assumptions. However, an earlier-than-expected start to production at the massive Yellowtail project could still shift the outlook.
In its April 2025 World Economic Outlook, the IMF revised its assumed average crude oil price for 2025 down to US$66.94 per barrel, based on futures market trends. This represents a 4.04% drop from its January estimate of US$69.76, and reflects a 15.5% decline from the 2024 average of US$79.17. The IMF calculates these prices using a simple average of Brent, Dubai Fateh, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude benchmarks.
In contrast, Guyana’s national budget, presented in January 2025, assumed a Brent crude price (against which Guyana’s crudes are priced) of US$71.90. That figure underpins the government’s forecast that the oil sector will generate US$17.61 billion in revenue from approximately 674,000 barrels per day (b/d) of production this year. From that total, the government expects to receive US$2.5 billion in oil revenues, including US$2.16 billion from its share of profit oil and US$341 million from royalties. So far, Guyana received US$605.46 million in the first quarter.
The gap between the IMF’s latest assumption and the Brent-based estimate used in Guyana’s budget suggests that actual government revenues could fall below expectations, unless production exceeds what was forecast.
A key variable is ExxonMobil’s Yellowtail development. The ONE GUYANA floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel arrived in Guyana in early April. If Yellowtail begins production ahead of schedule, the resulting output boost could help make up for the lower global price environment.
Also notable is that even in this price environment, ExxonMobil Guyana’s offshore projects remain highly profitable. The breakeven price for the Yellowtail development is estimated at US$29 per barrel, according to ExxonMobil’s disclosures. Other projects already producing — Liza 1 (US$35/bbl), Liza 2 (US$25/bbl), and Payara (US$32/bbl) — are similarly competitive. These cost structures are some of the lowest in the industry.
In contrast, some U.S. oil projects are now facing market prices that are approaching their breakeven thresholds, particularly in shale regions where new wells often require US$60 or more per barrel to turn a profit, a level that threatens the viability of future drilling activity.
