Guyana’s oil sector is projected to account for a slightly smaller share of the country’s economy in 2025 for the first time since offshore production began in 2019, even as overall output continues to rise, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Nominal gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast to reach US$25.82 billion (GY$5.38 trillion) in 2025, up from US$24.66 billion (GY$5.14 trillion) in 2024 and US$16.92 billion (GY$3.53 trillion) in 2023. While GDP continues to grow, the oil economy’s share of total output is projected to decline from 65.13% in 2024 to 62.62% in 2025, reflecting slower oil GDP growth and a surge in non-oil activity.
The IMF expects Guyana’s economy to grow by 10.3% in real terms in 2025. However, the figures in focus are for nominal GDP, which reflects the economy’s total output at current prices, and not real GDP, which is adjusted for inflation.
Crude output is expected to increase to 246 million barrels in 2025, up from 225.4 million barrels in 2024 and 142.3 million barrels in 2023. However, global price expectations for 2025 are lower, limiting the oil sector’s nominal value despite the increase in production.
Guyana’s oil economy has expanded rapidly in recent years, powered by successive projects developed by ExxonMobil and its partners Hess and CNOOC. These include the Liza 1, Liza 2, and Payara projects, all of which are currently producing.
The Yellowtail project is scheduled to begin production in the second half of 2025, but its contribution to GDP that year will not result in a significantly higher oil GDP than the prior year. A more significant impact is expected in 2026 when the project achieves full-year output.
Non-oil GDP is projected to increase to US$9.64 billion (GY$2.01 trillion) in 2025, up from US$8.60 billion (GY$1.79 trillion) in 2024 and US$7.31 billion (GY$1.52 trillion) in 2023. That represents a nearly 32% increase over two years.
The IMF noted: “Positive spillovers from the oil sector and improvements in infrastructure, productivity, and resilience are expected to boost the real non-oil GDP growth to an average of 6¾ percent over the medium term, about 3 percentage points higher than the pre-oil decade average.”
Even though the non-oil economy has not matched the explosive growth of the oil sector, its performance remains among the strongest globally. The government has stressed that oil development should not outpace foundational sectors and is positioning public investment to support long-term economic diversification.
Following Yellowtail, several new offshore projects are planned over the coming years. The Uaru project is expected to begin production in 2026 or 2027, followed by Whiptail (2027–2028), Hammerhead (2029), and Longtail (2030). In addition to oil, significant volumes of natural gas and condensate are expected to come online by the end of the decade.
These new developments are expected to drive further increases in oil production and could expand the sector’s share of GDP from 2026 onward.
