Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is using tactics reminiscent of Russian President Vladimir Putin, violating international agreements while casting Guyana’s response as provocative, according to analysts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
Just recently, a Venezuelan navy ship entered Guyanese territory and approached several oil assets owned by ExxonMobil. In an article posted on March 5 on the CSIS website, Analysts contend that Maduro’s strategy mirrors Putin’s in Ukraine, aiming to manipulate geopolitical tensions to his advantage.
Maduro’s portrayal of Guyanese President Irfaan Ali as a “Caribbean Zelensky” is seen as a calculated move to appeal to Moscow and exploit tensions within the U.S. administration.
Analysts contend, “Maduro, following in the footsteps of Putin, is violating international accords and recasting Guyana’s outrage as provocatory. Despite this posturing, however, Maduro may have overplayed his hand with these recent maneuvers.”
The Trump administration’s security policy prioritizes the Western Hemisphere. CSIS warns that Venezuelan threats could destabilize the region and disrupt global energy markets, making them difficult for Washington to ignore. Maduro’s limited leverage, primarily through hostage negotiations and migrant repatriation, may also prompt a stronger U.S. reaction if he reverses previous concessions.
Other global powers may intervene. Brazil, bound by the Geneva Agreement of 1966, has an interest in the dispute, but strained relations between Maduro and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva could limit Brazil’s role as a mediator.
China faces a complex situation due to its investments in both Venezuela and Guyana. The China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), involved in Guyana’s oil production, has previously stated that its development area is undisputed. However, Venezuela’s recent maritime claims could put Beijing in a difficult diplomatic position.
European nations are also reacting. The United Kingdom deployed HMS Trent to Guyana following Venezuela’s December 2023 referendum. France, with its interests in regional stability due to French Guiana, formed a joint working group with Guyana in May 2024 and quickly condemned the March 1 incursion. The Netherlands, with territories near Venezuela and ties to Suriname, could also play a role in mediation.
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CSIS analysts warn that a fragmented international response may embolden Maduro. A coordinated effort is necessary to deter further Venezuelan aggression and uphold international order.
Guyana and Venezuela are currently embroiled in a territorial controversy with an ongoing case at the International Court of Justice (ICJ).
The case centers on the 1899 Arbitral Award, which legally determined the boundary between the two countries. Venezuela, after accepting the boundary for decades, declared the award null and void in 1962 and has since claimed over two-thirds of Guyana’s territory in the Essequibo region.
Guyana initiated legal proceedings at the ICJ in 2018, following UN Secretary-General António Guterres’ determination that judicial settlement was the best path forward. The ICJ subsequently ruled it had jurisdiction over the case in 2020, rejecting Venezuela’s objections.
