Guyana and Brazil will continue to play a dominant role in Latin America’s oil production growth by 2030, according to Norway-based energy research and business intelligence firm, Rystad Energy.
The region is set to add over four million barrels per day (mbd) of new crude oil and condensate capacity, accounting for 39% of global non-OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) additions.
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Brazil has historically led production, but Guyana has emerged as a key contributor since production began at the Stabroek Block. By 2030, more than 85% of Latin America’s new offshore deepwater output will come from Guyana and Brazil, Rystad Energy said in an April 1 report.
Major projects driving growth include Brazil’s Buzios and Bacalhau developments and Guyana’s Uaru, Whiptail, and Yellowtail projects. Suriname’s GranMorgu project will start in 2028, and Mexico will add production from Zama, Trion, and Polok-Chinwol.
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According to Rystad Energy, global non-OPEC production capacity is expected to rise by 10.5 mbd between 2025 and 2030 but declines in mature fields will offset some gains. Latin America will see the highest growth at 1.9 mbd, outpacing North America, the Middle East, and Africa.
Strong project approvals and a solid development pipeline will keep Latin America at the forefront of global supply expansion through the decade.
