TT Energy Chamber flags long-term decline despite short-term gains in oil production

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The Energy Chamber of Trinidad and Tobago is urging serious reform in the country’s energy sector following the release of first-quarter 2025 production data by the Ministry of Energy and Energy Industries.

In a press statement on Monday, the Chamber said the data showed “short-term increases in the production of crude oil but declines in the production of natural gas and gas-related industries like  LNG (liquefied natural gas), methanol, and ammonia production.”

It emphasized that these short-term numbers often mask deeper structural issues. “Looking at monthly and quarterly data and even single year data often be a bit misleading as it ignores critical historical information,” the Chamber noted.

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Production across the energy sector is not consistent. “It fluctuates due to several factors, including scheduled outages (such as maintenance programs) and unscheduled outages, storage levels, and other factors.” The Chamber pointed out that “this data is also collected across multiple producers with multiple facilities; therefore, month to month, there are increases and decreases in production.”

The numbers for the first quarter of 2025 indicate a 5.9% year-over-year decrease in natural gas output. In contrast, crude oil production increased by 6.1%. Petrochemicals delivered mixed results—ammonia rose by 4.7%, and urea by 12.5%, while methanol declined by 15.3%.

However, beyond the quarterly data, the Chamber highlighted a concerning long-term trend. “Oil production has been falling for the last 20 years,” it said. “Peak oil production in T&T was about 144,000 barrels of oil per day in 2005. In May 2005, we produced 155,000 barrels per day. The production in March 2025 is 67% less than May 2005 – a substantial decrease.”

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Natural gas production has also seen a sharp decline. “In December 2009, natural gas production was 4.5 bcf (billion cubic feet) per day. In March 2025, it was 2.3 bcf/day, almost 50% of what was produced back then.”

The Chamber stressed that these trends reflect the need for urgent action. “This longer horizon highlights the urgent need for reform in the energy sector.” It called for stronger investment incentives: “More needs to be done to encourage investment in the oil and gas sector in T&T.”

The Chamber concluded, “increased investment leads to more projects, which leads to increased opportunities for contractors to work on greenfield projects, and ultimately, more monetization of oil and gas resources and increased exports of LNG, methanol, and ammonia, which can generate substantial foreign exchange.”

Trinidad and Tobago produced an average of 2.537 bscf/d in 2024, according to full-year data released by the Ministry of Energy and Energy Industries, with output rebounding in the second half after a historic low in June.

The largest producers were BP Trinidad and Tobago (BPTT) at 1.174 bscf/d, followed by Shell at 586 million cubic feet per day (mscf/d), EOG at 356 mscf/d, and Woodside at 296 mscf/d. Smaller volumes came from Perenco, Denovo, Touchstone, and Heritage Petroleum Company Ltd (HPCL).

Trinidad hoped to advance cross-border gas projects with Venezuela to boost supply, but these efforts were recently set back. The United States, under the Trump administration, revoked licenses that allowed such collaboration, as part of efforts to pressure the regime of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

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