Guyana’s government has significantly revised its forecast for the value of oil exports in 2024, now projecting a total of US$18.67 billion, up from the previous estimate of US$16.8 billion. This increase is driven by higher-than-expected oil production and strong oil prices.
The country’s Mid-Year report for 2024 highlights a robust performance in the first half of the year, with the economy growing by 49.7% compared to the same period in 2023. The oil and gas sector was the primary driver of this growth, expanding by 67.1% and producing 113.5 million barrels of oil during this period.
Oil production for the entire year is now expected to reach 228 million barrels, up from the earlier forecast of approximately 202 million barrels. This increase has led to an upward revision of the oil sector’s growth projection to 56.4%, a significant rise from the initial estimate of 44.7%.
Export earnings from crude oil in the first half of 2024 amounted to US$9.4 billion. Much of this went to repay the Exxon-led group’s Stabroek Block expenses. The government received payments for 13 of its 15 oil lifts executed in the first half, totaling US$1.22 billion, with royalty payments for the last quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024 amounting to US$162.4 million. The revised estimate for the government’s share of crude oil lifts this year has also been increased to 27, up from the previous forecast of 25.
The report also highlights the strong performance of the non-oil sector, which grew by 12.6% in the first half of the year. For the full year, the overall economy is projected to grow by 42.3%, with the non-oil economy expected to expand by 11.8%.
Oil-related deposits into the Natural Resource Fund (NRF) are now expected to generate over US$2.6 billion for Guyana, reflecting a 10.3% increase from the earlier projection of US$2.4 billion. These deposits will be composed of US$2.29 billion from oil sales and US$353.8 million in royalties. Production at the Liza 1, Liza 2, and Payara projects had daily production rates of 157,000 barrels, 245,000 barrels, and 222,000 barrels, respectively in the first half.
ExxonMobil operates all three projects at the Stabroek Block offshore Guyana.
