Rystad Energy says Argentina, Guyana and Brazil are positioned to lead Latin American oil production growth in 2026 and will continue to outpace Venezuela for years, despite signs of near-term Venezuelan supply returning to the market.
In a February 4 analysis, the independent research and energy intelligence company said flagship projects in the big three are expected to add more than 700,000 barrels per day this year. This gives them a durable edge as investors weigh capital allocation across the region.
“Rystad Energy analysis estimates that flagship projects in Argentina, Guyana and Brazil, which are expected to add more than 700,000 barrels per day (b/d) of oil production this year, will continue to outcompete Venezuela through at least 2030,” the Norway-based consultancy said.
Oil majors expanding in South America as Guyana anchors IOC-led growth – Rystad Energy | OilNOW
The analysis noted that supermajors still view Venezuela as difficult to underwrite on a long-term basis.
Rystad Energy noted that recent reforms, including sanctions relief and changes to hydrocarbons legislation, have supported U.S. efforts to market Venezuelan crude, but legal uncertainty and weak institutions continue to limit investment appetite.
“Oversupply, whether from Venezuelan or even Iranian barrels, is what is truly testing the financial resilience of operators who would otherwise gain from a revived oil industry in the Bolivarian Republic,” said Radhika Bansal, Vice President, Oil and Gas Research at Rystad Energy.
The U.S. Energy Information Agency’s (EIA) December 2025 Energy Outlook referenced the big three as accounting for half the growth of global crude production this year. It is forecasted to rise by 800,000 b/d.
The EIA expects Brazil to average about 4.0 million b/d in 2026, with two more floating production, storage and offloading (FPSOs) vessels scheduled for Petrobras’ Búzios field.
Guyana remains among the world’s fastest-growing oil producers. Production averaged about 716,000 b/d in 2025, driven by ExxonMobil’s Stabroek Block with partners Hess and CNOOC. When the fifth project, Uaru, comes on stream, production will be pushed beyond one million b/d by 2027.
Argentina’s growth is led by the Vaca Muerta shale play. Output is forecast to rise from about 740,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 to around 810,000 bpd in 2026, with Vaca Muerta contributing more than 60% of national production, according to the EIA.
