Rising geopolitical instability in the Middle East could increase oil revenues for Guyana while also exposing capacity constraints across the Caribbean, according to Philippe Jackson, Partner and Political Risk Advisor at Orinoco Research.
In a March 2 LinkedIn post, Jackson said the unfolding situation in the Middle East is having visible effects on energy markets and the broader economy. The region supplies roughly 20% of global oil, and disruptions to offshore fields, export terminals, or processing plants can tighten markets quickly.
Jackson stated that Brent crude has risen “approximately 9%, now hovering around US$80 per barrel”. He said market volatility highlights “the short-term need to reduce dependence on Middle-Eastern oil”.
Higher crude prices, he explained, raise freight expenses and compress refining margins, pushing gasoline and diesel prices higher. Because the Middle East accounts for a large share of OPEC+ output, prolonged tension could keep global supplies tight even as the United States, Brazil, Canada and other producers add barrels.
For Guyana, producing around 900,000 barrels per day of oil offshore at the Stabroek Block, higher global prices mean increased export earnings. Jackson identified “higher export revenues” and “fiscal upside” among the strategic opportunities for the country. He also pointed to “accelerated investment,” stating that lower price risk makes new upstream projects and floating production, storage and offloading vessel upgrades more attractive to international partners.
Jackson said persistent threats to the Strait of Hormuz could encourage shippers to use Atlantic gateways, positioning Guyana’s ports as an alternative conduit for buyers seeking diversification. Jackson also wrote that “some observers see heightened uncertainty and panic, whereas others spot a window of opportunity,” noting that Caribbean nations can convert turbulence into economic advantage if they position themselves strategically.
OilNOW reached out to Jackson for further comment, asking whether the shift carries any downsides.
“Great question… the short answer is yes… there would always be risk in such a shift, but it’s always about types of risks and whether they are genuine threats and that’s where things can get more complicated,” Jackson said.
He cautioned that the region is still developing the technical and logistical strength required to absorb a major redirection of global trade.
“Realistically, the Caribbean doesn’t currently have the capacity nor the expertise to take on such a colossal job; but capacity is building, expertise is growing and economic capability is rising,” he said.
Jackson added that reliance on oil and gas exports through the Straits of Hormuz may remain exposed during periods of conflict, creating an incentive for companies, importing countries and consumers to diversify and spread risk.
Orinoco Research is an on-the-ground market research advisory facility for Latin America and the Caribbean.
