S&P Global Ratings affirmed Trinidad and Tobago’s long-term sovereign credit rating at “BBB-” on July 22, 2026, but maintained a negative outlook as economic growth remains weak and the country’s financial buffers continue to decline.
The ratings agency also affirmed the country’s “BBB-/A-3” long- and short-term foreign and local currency sovereign ratings. Its transfer and convertibility assessment remains at “BBB.”
“The negative outlook reflects there is at least a one-in-three chance of a downgrade over the next 12 months,” S&P said. A BBB- sovereign credit rating is the lowest level of investment grade. The agency said Trinidad and Tobago has recorded poor economic growth over the past 12 years. Gross domestic product per capita remains below its 2014 level, while fiscal and external buffers have weakened.
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S&P expects the economy to contract in 2026 before growth resumes in 2027.
“We believe GDP growth will remain negative in 2026 before gradually increasing in 2027, supported by new gas fields entering production and low growth in the nonenergy sector,” the agency said. However, part of the additional gas supply will replace declining output from existing fields. S&P said Trinidad and Tobago will continue to depend on projects entering production in 2028 and beyond to maintain output.
The agency noted that newer domestic projects are expected to be located mainly in deeper waters, where resources can be more difficult and expensive to develop. Trinidad and Tobago remains heavily dependent on oil, natural gas, and petrochemicals. The energy sector typically accounts for more than one-quarter of GDP and government revenue. It also represented almost 80% of exports, on average, over the past five years.
The country’s proximity to Venezuela could provide some economic upside if companies operating in Trinidad and Tobago gain access to cross-border or near-border gas resources. The gas could be transported to Trinidad and Tobago’s downstream facilities and liquefied natural gas plants. S&P did not include possible increases in production from Venezuelan fields in its forecasts.
“We believe timing and access to Venezuelan gas are highly uncertain, but it could contribute to Trinidad and Tobago’s economy and government revenues,” the agency said.
