Global upstream investments are forecast to drop by 2% in 2025, marking a slowdown after years of growth, according to Rystad Energy.
Despite the overall decline, deepwater investments are set to rise by 3%, supported by projects in Suriname, Mexico, and Türkiye. Offshore shelf spending will grow by 2%, with key activity in Indonesia, Qatar, and Russia.
Shale and tight oil investments are expected to decline by 8%, reflecting reduced activity and lower unit prices.
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Non-OPEC+ oil supply is predicted to increase by 1.4 million barrels per day (b/d), driven by tight oil, deepwater, and natural gas liquids, which will add over 300,000 b/d.
Global liquids demand is projected to grow by 1 million b/d, but oversupply from faster non-OPEC+ growth is pushing oil prices down. OPEC+ will play a pivotal role in 2025, balancing its market share against non-OPEC+ growth and slowing demand.
Aditya Saraswat, Senior Vice President, Upstream Research, noted, “The OPEC+ balancing act will make or break oil prices.”
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