Guyana is emerging as a significant threat to OPEC’s dominance, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) 2024 World Energy Outlook, released on October 16. The IEA predicts that OPEC’s market share will drop from its current 34% to 33% by 2030, its lowest level since the 1980s, before rebounding to 40% by 2050.
High production levels from countries like the U.S., Canada, Brazil, and Guyana are seen as major factors in this decline.
Guyana, with its 11.6 billion barrels of oil reserves and plans to boost production to 1.3 million barrels per day by 2027, ranks among the top non-OPEC+ producers poised to drive global supply growth. Despite OPEC’s previous interest in having Guyana join its ranks, the South American nation remains firm in its stance.
“We don’t want to be part of OPEC at this point in time,” said Vice President Bharrat Jagdeo. A key reason for Guyana’s reluctance is OPEC’s frequent production cuts, which conflict with Guyana’s goal of maximizing its oil output.
The IEA also warns of a potential “significant overhang of supply” in this decade, with OPEC’s spare capacity expected to rise from six million barrels per day in 2024 to eight million by 2030. In a scenario with stronger net-zero efforts, global oil production could fall to 52.1 million barrels per day by 2050, with OPEC’s output shrinking to just 21.36 million barrels per day.
U.S. EIA: Guyana is now the third fastest growing non-OPEC oil producer in the world | OilNOW
OPEC’s recent production cuts have drawn criticism, particularly from the West, as the energy market struggles to recover from the pandemic. The IEA has openly clashed with the cartel over these measures, emphasizing the need for stability in the oil market.
