Guyana COVID-19 Situational Report with forecasts

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Bobby Gossai, Jr.
Bobby Gossai, Jr. is currently pursuing the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Economics at the University of Aberdeen with a research focus on Fiscal Policies and Regulations for an Emerging Petroleum Producing Country. He completed his MSc (Econ) in Petroleum, Energy Economics and Finance from the same institution, and also holds an MSC in Economics from the University of the West Indies. Mr. Gossai, Jr.’s professional experiences include being the head of the Guyana Oil and Gas Association and senior policy analyst and advisor at the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment.

Updated: July 24, 2020

Chart 1: Coronavirus Healthcare Status in Guyana

The chart above highlights the trend of the healthcare status of patients who have contracted the coronavirus, from March to July 23, 2020.  The average number of patients at institutional isolation has been growing on a daily basis since March. The average daily number of persons at a hospital with coronavirus in April was 37, for May it was 61, for June it was 73 and as of July 23, it amounts to 140 persons.

However, the average daily number of persons who were kept in institutional quarantine have been fluctuating. In March, on a daily average basis, around 4 persons were in institutional quarantine, in April there was an increase to about 22 persons per day, whilst for May the number has dropped to around 7 persons per day and it increased in June to around 20 persons on average per day. Further, July is seeing a slight drop to 18 persons per day who are in institutional quarantine. Moreover, the number of persons who are in the Intensive Care Unit with coronavirus for May were about 2 per day, in June there was at least 1 person in the ICU every day and in July the daily average of ICU patients has increased to 5.

Chart 2: Guyana COVID-19 Cases

The chart above shows the number of COVID-19 cases in Guyana from March 11, 2020, to July 23, 2020, as reported by the Ministry of Public Health. The chart illustrates the cumulative daily number of persons who have been tested and the total number of confirmed cases in Guyana for the reported period. At the current date, Guyana has tested 3,975 persons for the virus, from which there have been a reported total of 351 persons who have contracted the novel coronavirus. The total number of reported negative cases from the tests, during these months, is 3,624.

In March, the daily average increase in confirmed cases from the total number of persons tested was 30.9%. Whilst for the month of April, the daily average increases in confirmed cases from the total number of persons tested were reported to be 7.1%. The month of May showed a daily average increase of 2.1% in the number of confirmed cases from the total number of tested persons. The daily average increase in the number of confirmed cases for June was 1.6% from the total number of persons who have been tested. The current average daily increase in confirmed cases for July is also 1.6% from the reported statistics.

Forecast on Confirmed Cases

Given the current rate of growth and trend of the confirmed COVID-19 cases in Guyana and using a forecasting method of ARIMA, then it can be predicted that over the next 28 days, at a lower limit, the number of cases could reach 412 infections. However, this prediction at a median level is higher with 473 persons having the coronavirus, although, at the upper limit of the forecast, the number of cumulative infections could be even greater with 535 persons having COVID-19 in Guyana, by August 20, 2020.

Chart 3: Guyana COVID-19 Cases as of July 23, 2020

The chart above illustrates the current COVID-19 situation in Guyana as of July 23, 2020. There is a total of 351 confirmed cases in Guyana to date for the reporting period. From the time of the first reported case to the current date a total of nineteen (19) persons have lost their lives from the virus. Guyana has seen 176 persons being fully recovered from the novel coronavirus from March to July. Currently, in Guyana, there are 156 active cases of COVID-19, as reported by the Ministry of Public Health; of which thirty-three (33) of those persons are in institutional quarantine and two (2) other persons are in a more serious state within the ICU. On July 23, 2020, there was one (1) new positive case of the virus in Guyana.

Forecasts on the Daily Positive Cases

Using the series of current data for the number of daily positive cases of COVID-19 in Guyana, a forecasted method of the Damped Trend Seasonal Additive has revealed that the current rate of infection could add between 4 to 5 more new cases (at a median level) or 11 to 12 newly infected persons, per day, at an upper limit, by August 20, 2020.

Chart 4: Guyana COVID-19 Daily Cases

The chart above demonstrates the daily number of cases in Guyana. The chart features the daily confirmation of positive cases and the daily deaths which have been recorded from the virus during the period of March to July. For the current month, there were three days where over 10 persons were confirmed as positive. The single highest daily number of positive cases recorded for this month, so far, was 16 persons.

Forecasts on COVID-19 Mortality

The forecasts from the current rate of mortality for COVID-19 in Guyana could indicate an increase to 23 persons, at a lower limit, using the best-forecasted method of ARIMA, over the next 28-days. However, Guyana could experience an even further increase in the number of deaths to 29 persons, at an upper limit, by August 20, 2020.

Chart 5: Daily Tests for COVID-19 in Guyana

The chart above demonstrates the number of daily tests which have been done to determine the magnitude of the coronavirus in Guyana from March to July. For the current month, 1,397 tests have been conducted with the highest daily number of tests being performed on 93 persons. The average daily number of tests that are being done is 61, which is almost twice of that which were done in the previous month.

Further, the chart below features the number of persons who have recovered from the coronavirus since March to July.  Over the reporting period, 176 persons in Guyana have been able to recover from the virus. This is a demonstration that over 50.14% of all of the confirmed cases have been able to have a full recovery.

Chart 6: Cumulative Recovery of COVID-19 in Guyana

Chart 7: Reproduction Estimate for Guyana

The reproduction number (R) is the average number of secondary infections produced by 1 infected person. The estimated R for Guyana was done using the number of confirmed cases over the given period of March to July and by applying a logarithmic model. The growth rate reflects how quickly the number of infections is changing day by day. It is an approximation of the change in the number of infections each day. If the growth rate is greater than zero (+ positive), then the disease will grow. If the growth rate is less than zero (- negative) then the disease will shrink. The R estimate from the data for Guyana has been stable at around 0.7 to 0.8 over the measured period.

Chart 8: Cumulative COVID-19 Cases in Guyana

The chart above demonstrates the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases in Guyana over the period of March to July. It depicts the trend of growth of the coronavirus over a logarithmic scale to show the development of the virus over time. As can be seen from the trendline of the confirmed cases, the curve for Guyana is at a rapidly increasing phase since June 15, 2020.

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