Guyana expects 1 million bpd output by 2029; Exxon could get there sooner

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Guyana’s Ministry of Finance in its 2022 mid-year report said oil production is expected to surpass one million barrels per day by 2029 at the ExxonMobil-operated Stabroek Block. But based on the pace of project approvals, this is likely to come even sooner.

ExxonMobil expects that it will achieve production capacity of 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in the Stabroek Block by 2027. It plans to get there using six floating production vessels. Closer to the end of the decade, the Stabroek Block partners may even have 10 floaters operating simultaneously within the license area.

The 2022 mid-year report notes that from May 2015 to present, 38 discoveries were made offshore Guyana, with 33 occurring in the Stabroek Block. Since the first Liza discovery in 2015, the report states that Guyana’s recoverable resource now stands at approximately 11 billion oil equivalent barrels. It said this exponential increase places Guyana at number 17 for the largest reserves in the world.

The report recalls that when the Liza Destiny floating production, storage, and offloading (FPSO) vessel began production in December 2019, it was estimated that the Liza Phase 1 well would produce 120,000 bpd at peak. At the end of June, the report said that well was performing at an average rate of 137,000 bpd, notwithstanding technical challenges over the years.

At the end of June 2022, the report notes that Guyana’s cumulative profit oil earnings from Liza Phase 1 stood at US$747.1 million.

With respect to the Liza Unity FPSO, the document notes that first oil flowed on February 11, 2022. Government said the addition of this FPSO – which has the capacity to produce 220,000 bpd – brings Guyana’s productive capacity to over 350,000 bpd. The Liza Unity FPSO continued to ramp up, and at the end of the first half-of the year, brought in US$102.5 million in profit oil revenues for the government.

Exxon’s third and fourth projects, Payara and Yellowtail, are approved and projected to produce 220,000 bpd and 250,000 bpd, respectively. In the medium-term, the four projects are expected to be in operation, with output exceeding 820,000 bpd by the first quarter of 2026.

Plans for the fifth project, Uaru, are expected to be submitted later this year for review by the Government.

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