Guyana has upgraded its 2025 economic growth forecast to 15.2%, citing continued strength in oil production that has offset weaker global crude prices, the Ministry of Finance said in its mid-year report.
The revised projection marks a sharp increase from the previous estimate of 10.6%, driven largely by output from the country’s four producing projects in the Stabroek Block, operated by a consortium led by ExxonMobil. The Ministry said the oil and gas sector grew by 5.5% in the first half of 2025, with production totaling 115.7 million barrels, up from 113.5 million barrels in the same period last year.
Average daily output reached nearly 640,000 barrels of oil per day (b/d), compared with about 624,000 b/d in the first half of 2024. The government now expects the sector to expand by 15.6% for the full year, aided by the earlier-than-planned startup of the Yellowtail project.
The report said the overall economy expanded by 7.5% in the first half of 2025, while the non-oil economy grew by 13.8%, supported by strong performances across several sectors. Non-oil growth for the year is projected at 13.9%, making 2025 the fifth consecutive year of expansion in both the overall and non-oil economy.
The Ministry noted that the global crude oil price averaged US$71.70 per barrel in the first half of the year, down 14.6% from a year earlier, as demand weakened and OPEC+ announced plans to increase supply by about 400,000 b/d.
Despite this price decline, Guyana’s expanding output has kept its growth outlook “strongly positive”, the report said, adding that the government will continue to prioritize the non-oil economy even as oil production ramps up.
