The news that Shell issued a final investment decision for the Manatee gas field was welcomed by Trinidad and Tobago’s former Energy Minister, Kevin Ramnarine.
But he believes the development will only make a small dent in lifting TT’s liquid natural gas (LNG) production.
“Forecasts indicate that T&T’s natural gas production levels could dip as low as 2.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) by 2027. Manatee’s production (at its peak) will only get the national production levels back to where it was in 2022,” he wrote in a July 9 commentary published by AZ News. Production from Manatee is expected to reach a peak of approximately 104,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) or 604 million standard cubic feet per day (MMscf/d).
Ramnarine noted that gas production levels thus far in TT are “struggling around 2.5 bcfd.” Production levels were around 2.59 bcf/d in 2022, according to data pulled from Statista.
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According to Shell’s announcement, Manatee is slated to achieve first gas in 2027. Ramnarine pointed out that it did not commit to a precise date in that year.
“If we were to assume ‘first gas’ for Manatee happens in Q3 2027, it means this supply is three years from now and it could be more if there is schedule slippage. The question is what happens to the supply of natural gas in 2024 to 2027,” he questioned.
The former TT Energy Minister is of the contention that Manatee “will not precipitate an economic boom” in the country. He advised that it must not reduce Trinidad’s thrust towards economic diversification.
TT has about 10 years of gas production left based on less than 12 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of natural gas reserves, its current Minister of Energy and Energy Industries, Stuart Young said. The figures are the results of non-associated gas audits conducted by the petroleum consulting firm, DeGolyer and MacNaughton. The report states that Trinidad and Tobago’s unrisked technically recoverable quantities of proven (P1) and contingent (C1) gas were estimated at 11.498 tcf as of a 2022 audit.
It should be reminded that Trinidad is a mature province. Trinidad’s annual gas output has dropped from 1.479 tcf in 2012, to 0.988 tcf in 2022.
