Major oil companies are placing greater emphasis on projects in the Americas as disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict create uncertainty around production, exports and future oil prices, according to an August 19 report by S&P Global.
The report found that strong second-quarter earnings were largely driven by higher commodity prices rather than increased production. Dated Brent crude reached an all-time high of US$144 per barrel in April, while refining margins for several major producers were significantly higher than a year earlier.
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Bp and Shell both reported profits roughly double their 2025 levels, while ExxonMobil and Chevron recorded returns in the double-digit billions of dollars. However, production growth has been more difficult as companies face disruptions and transportation bottlenecks.
Shell, TotalEnergies and bp each reported quarterly production declines ranging from 100,000 barrels of oil per day (b/d) to 300,000 b/d. Chevron was the only one of the group to increase production during the period.
“Most production offsets came from the Americas, a region that has become increasingly important for majors to deliver on growth plans. Before the conflict began, the Americas were already expected to drive most global supply growth, but production has rapidly scaled,” S&P Global said.
The International Energy Agency has raised its forecast for oil production growth in the region to 1.9 million b/d in 2026, up from its January projection of 1.5 million b/d. It expects another 900,000 b/d of growth in 2027.
ExxonMobil recorded its highest non-Middle East production in more than two decades during the second quarter. Its U.S. operations reached a record 2.1 million b/d, while ConocoPhillips also reported record production from the Permian Basin.
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Other majors are also expanding their focus in the region. bp is advancing development of its Bumerangue discovery offshore Brazil, its largest discovery in 25 years, and expects the Americas to account for more than 70% of its production from new projects by the end of the decade.
TotalEnergies is relying on production growth in Brazil and the United States, while Shell is expanding its Canadian position through its US$16.4 billion acquisition of ARC Resources announced in April.
“Much attention has been directed to Guyana and the Permian Basin for growth. Chevron, meanwhile, has quickly hiked production in Venezuela since the country’s former president, Nicolas Maduro, was ousted earlier this year, and wants to grow its output by another 50% before 2029,” the firm stated.
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Despite stronger earnings, the majors have remained cautious about increasing spending. Bp suspended its share buyback program in February to strengthen its balance sheet, while Shell and TotalEnergies have kept shareholder payouts below last year’s levels. Chevron also reduced its debt by US$8 billion during the second quarter.
Dated Brent has since fallen to just above US$90 per day, more than 35% below its April peak. The lower price environment has reinforced caution among producers, with BP forecasting Brent at US$80 per day for the second half of 2026.
