OPEC – the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries – forecasts a hike in the world oil demand in 2023 by at least 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) year-on-year, according to its latest Oil Market Report.
OPEC said that Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) demand is forecast to increase by 0.3 million bpd; this is mostly in OECD Americas, while other OECD regions are not expected to see noticeable growth. In non-OECD, oil demand is forecast to increase by 1.9 million bpd. China and India are expected to see the largest growth.
OPEC noted that its forecast assumes the successful containment of the COVID-19 pandemic and a resumption of pre-pandemic economy in China. India’s oil demand is projected to be supported by continued healthy economic growth.
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On the flip side, non-OPEC supply growth in 2023 is forecast to expand by 1.5 million bpd year-on-year. OPEC said US tight oil output and offshore start-ups in Latin America and the North Sea are expected to drive growth. The US is expected to lead the way with a 75% share of the total growth. Norway follows, then Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana.
The South American country is the newest oil producer on the list and is already playing in the big leagues. Guyana has two projects producing, two more approved and a fifth awaiting government approval. ExxonMobil has made over 30 discoveries offshore Guyana since 2015 and estimates reserves to be around 11 billion barrels of oil equivalent in the offshore Stabroek Block.
Meanwhile, non-OPEC upstream sector investment is forecast at US$459 billion in 2023, year-on-year – up by 8% from US$424 billion in 2022.
Looking ahead, OPEC outlined that 2023 is expected to remain surrounded by many uncertainties – like a volatile price market and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. This, it said mandates vigilance and caution.19
