Venezuela’s ability to increase oil production in the coming years will depend less on discovering new resources and more on rebuilding the oilfield services needed to support existing fields, according to a July 12 report from Rystad Energy.
The research firm said Venezuela’s production recovery will require a major increase in operational capacity, including more drilling activity, well interventions, equipment availability, and field maintenance.
“The Venezuelan Oil Ministry has identified a requirement for 93 active drilling rigs by 2028, a significant increase from current activity levels. Achieving this target would require a phased expansion involving reactivating domestic rigs, refurbishing idle equipment and eventually importing additional rigs from international markets,” Rystad Energy explained.
Rystad Energy estimates that Venezuela’s crude production could increase by about 17%, or roughly 194,000 barrels per day (b/d), between the fourth quarter of 2025 and the fourth quarter of 2028. Most of that growth is expected to come from existing producing fields rather than new discoveries.
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The report said heavier crude grades will continue to dominate Venezuela’s output, accounting for about three-quarters of production through 2028. The Orinoco Oil Belt is expected to contribute around 60% of total production, making mature field management, workover activities, infill drilling, and access to diluents critical to future growth.
“This creates substantial opportunities for drilling contractors and oilfield service providers but also highlights the scale of the execution challenge. Companies must balance equipment mobilization costs, contract duration requirements, and country risk before committing capital,” Rystad Energy noted.
Some local contractors have already started reactivating existing equipment, while international service companies remain cautious as they assess whether recent policy reforms will create a stable and commercially attractive operating environment.
Beyond equipment availability, Rystad Energy highlighted fiscal terms as a factor that could influence future investment. The firm said operators are seeking improvements to Venezuela’s royalty and tax framework, with more competitive conditions helping lower project costs and improve the economics of returning capital to the country.
“International oil companies (IOCs) are expected to contribute nearly two-thirds of Venezuela’s forecast production increase through 2028. Chevron remains the largest contributor, followed by Repsol, Eni, Maha Energy and Maurel & Prom… Companies continue to balance the opportunity presented by Venezuela’s vast resource base against fiscal uncertainty, operational complexity and long-term investment risk,” the report disclosed.
