A February 4 analysis published by Forbes magazine has pointed to Guyana’s stable and predictable contractual framework as a central reason the country has surged ahead of Venezuela in South America’s oil sector.
The article, written by Senior Contributor Robert Rapier, contrasts the paths taken by Guyana and Venezuela, two neighbors sitting atop the same prolific offshore basin but delivering sharply different outcomes for investors and operators.
Rapier writes that Guyana’s rapid rise from zero oil production a decade ago to between 840,000 and 900,000 barrels per day as of January 2026 was not driven by geology alone.
“It is the institutional framework the country put in place,” he noted. “By partnering early with an ExxonMobil-led consortium and maintaining a stable, predictable contractual environment, Guyana allowed capital and expertise to flow rapidly.”
According to the article, this policy consistency enabled Guyana to move from frontier exploration to large-scale production in record time, supported by successive floating production, storage and offloading vessels in the Stabroek Block.
The Forbes piece contrasts that approach with Venezuela’s experience following the 2007 expropriation of foreign oil assets, which it describes as the moment when confidence in the country’s contracts collapsed.
Rubio points to Guyana as safer bet for oil investment than Venezuela | OilNOW
According to the writer, Venezuela could seize infrastructure, but “what could not be seized was technical expertise, access to global supply chains, or the capital required to sustain complex oil operations.”
Rapier surmised that Guyana’s example reinforces a basic rule of the energy business. “Capital goes where it is welcome and stays where it is treated well.”
The analysis comes as Venezuela signals a policy reset in its oil sector, while the two countries are embroiled in a border controversy.
