Guyana has emerged as the key driver behind the Caribbean’s export resurgence, with its oil sector leading with a notable 59.6% growth in 2024, according to the latest trade trends report from the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB).
This surge positions Guyana as a key contributor to the broader recovery of Latin America and the Caribbean’s (LAC) export economy, which experienced a 4.1% increase in export value after a 1.6% decline in 2023.
The IDB report highlighted that Guyana’s booming oil industry accounted for most of the Caribbean’s impressive 18.3% export growth in 2024.
Guyana’s success in the oil industry in 2024 was highlighted by the government’s revised oil export forecast of US$18.67 billion, up from an earlier estimate of US$16.8 billion, as detailed in the country’s 2024 mid-year report.
This adjustment reflects higher-than-expected oil production, with total output for the year projected at 228 million barrels, exceeding the initial forecast of 202 million barrels.
The mid-year report also highlights the oil sector’s remarkable 67.1% growth in the first half of 2024, producing 113.5 million barrels of oil.
Production from ExxonMobil’s flagship projects—Liza 1, Liza 2, and Payara—drove these results, with combined daily production rates reaching over 624,000 barrels per day.
According to the IDB report, this rapid expansion of the country’s oil exports was fueled by increased production capacity and strategic partnerships with its energy partners.
In contrast, other Caribbean economies saw mixed results, with Belize showing modest growth and most others experiencing continued contractions.
The report attributes Guyana’s success to a “surge” in oil exports to major markets such as the European Union (EU) and Latin America. In particular, sales to the EU and regional trading partners compensated for a notable decline in exports to Asia.
Consequently, Guyana’s strategic positioning and investment-friendly policies have attracted international players, driving up export volumes despite fluctuations in global commodity prices.
While Guyana’s oil exports thrived, the report revealed that other Caribbean economies encountered challenges. Suriname and Trinidad and Tobago experienced double-digit declines in export value.
Jamaica’s exports contracted by an estimated 9.3% in 2024, reversing the 4.9% growth recorded in 2023, primarily driven by the decline in fuel sales while in Trinidad and Tobago, exports fell by an estimated 13.1% in 2024, less than the 37.8% contraction observed in 2023.
Exports from the Bahamas contracted by 15.1% in 2024, marking a second consecutive year of decline (–14.0% in 2023).
According to the IDB report, the decrease was driven by sales to the United States, which outweighed gains in Asia (excluding China) and the EU.
The largest contributors to this decline were manufactured goods, machinery and transportation equipment, as well as minerals and fuels. Suriname’s exports plummeted by an estimated 40.5% in 2024, deepening the 15.5% contraction recorded in 2023.
The report notes that the overall Caribbean export growth would have been significantly lower without Guyana’s strong performance.
Across the wider LAC region, export growth varied. South America’s export volumes rebounded with a 6.9% increase, driven by agricultural recoveries in countries like Argentina and Uruguay.
Mexico experienced modest growth, primarily due to higher prices rather than increased volumes, while Central America’s exports remained stagnant.
Despite the positive momentum, the IDB report warns of potential headwinds that could impact Guyana’s export trajectory since declining global oil prices, geopolitical uncertainties, and climate-related disruptions pose significant risks.
