The global oil industry is changing, with Guyana’s production rising quickly while Mexico’s output declines. This is according to Adrian Duhalt, a fellow at the Texas-Mexico Center at the Southern Methodist University, who pointed out their contrasting paths.
“Guyana’s oil production is on a promising trajectory. With substantial increases expected in the coming years, the country is poised for a significant boost in export revenue, which will not only fuel the local economy but also set up Guyana as a key player in the LATAM oil market,” Duhalt explained via LinkedIn on March 12.
Guyana’s Stabroek Block currently has three operating FPSOs: Liza Destiny, Liza Unity, and Prosperity. By 2027, three more FPSOs—ONE GUYANA, Errea Wittu, and Jaguar—will be added, pushing total production to 1.3 million barrels per day.
The Stabroek Block co-venturers also plan two more developments, Hammerhead and Longtail, bringing the total projects to eight. Hammerhead is expected to start production around 2029 and operate for 20 years, potentially increasing Guyana’s offshore capacity to 1.5 million barrels per day.
Mexico’s upstream slowdown seen as opportunity for Guyana | OilNOW
Meanwhile, Mexico’s national oil company, Pemex, is struggling. “Despite its rich history as one of the world’s largest oil producers, the company is grappling with serious operational and financial challenges. Crude output continues to decline, and natural gas production is also under pressure. Mexico’s refineries are struggling to reach best performance, and Pemex’s mounting financial debt further complicates the situation.”
Duhalt sees an opportunity for Guyana to capture more of the global market. “Considering these contrasting trends, Guyana’s rapid oil growth is a valuable opportunity for the country to not only capture a greater global market share but potentially catch up with Mexico in terms of oil production and export revenues.”
“With strategic investments and a focus on boosting production, Guyana may soon join other oil giants of the region,” he observed.
Analysts at S&P Global Commodity Insights outlined a similar view. As the focus shifts away from Mexico, experts believe this could be a pivotal moment for Guyana to attract more investment in its expanding oil and gas sector.
ExxonMobil is the operator of the Stabroek Block, where all producing projects are located. The U.S. major has a 45% stake, alongside Hess (30%) and CNOOC (25%).
