Guyana is forecast to become one of the top 10 non-OPEC oil producers by 2031, according to new data from Rystad Energy.
The firm reported on an interactive chart via LinkedIn on July 2 that total liquids production from non-OPEC countries will peak around 2027 at approximately 72 million barrels per day (b/d), before declining to just under 60 million b/d by 2040. The chart includes crude oil, condensates, natural gas liquids, and other liquids.
Rystad attributes the 2027 peak to a slowdown in tight oil production. “Since 2015, tight oil supply has expanded by around 10 million b/d…most of this growth has come from the US, which alone contributed about 9 million b/d.”
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By 2027, the United States is expected to lead non-OPEC production with 23.03 million b/d, followed by Russia with 11.04 million, and Canada with 6.28 million. Guyana does not appear in the top 10 at this point.
By 2031, Guyana will enter the rankings with production at 1.3 million b/d, replacing Mexico. The U.S. remains dominant at 22.45 million b/d, while Russia and Canada see declines to 10.31 and 6.24 million b/d, respectively. Total production for the top 10 in 2031 is projected at 66.23 million b/d.
By 2035, Guyana’s output will climb to 1.6 million b/d, surpassing Norway. Argentina also increases output to 1.8 million b/d. U.S. production is forecast to fall to 21.03 million b/d, while Russia declines to 9.62 million. Overall output among the top 10 falls further to 62.33 million b/d.
Rystad’s forecast is conservative compared to ExxonMobil’s projections for Guyana. Exxon has said it expects production offshore Guyana to reach 1.7 million b/d by 2030.
“The decline reflects low growth from tight oil and decreasing output from conventional onshore and deepwater sources,” Rystad noted. “Other non-OPEC producers expected to see output declines include Russia, Norway and Mexico.”
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Tight oil production is expected to increase by only 2.3 million b/d in the next decade. Argentina alone will contribute 1.1 million b/d to that growth. At the same time, “conventional non-OPEC production… is projected to fall by an additional 5 million b/d over the coming decade,” Rystad outlined.
ExxonMobil operates the Stabroek Block with a 45% stake, alongside Hess (30%) and CNOOC (25%). Since 2015, Exxon has announced over 30 discoveries. Some experts estimate the block holds 20 billion barrels.
Since starting production in 2019, Exxon has ramped up output from the Liza 1, Liza 2, and Payara developments to more than 650,000 barrels per day. The Yellowtail project, expected online in 2025, is expected to further boost production.
