Monday, February 6, 2023

Brazil elections: Lula in four-point lead against Bolsonaro ahead of run-off vote

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As Brazil gears for the October 30 runoff vote, leftist Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva currently holds a four-point lead against his opponent, incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro, recent polls show.

Lula’s PT party held 49% of voting intentions, while Bolsonaro holds 45%. According to the polls, there is 4% of Brazil’s population who vote blank or null and 1% remain undecided.

“The margin of error is two points more or less but the distance puts the two candidates at the limit of a technical tie situation, with the greatest probability of PT leading the contest,” market researcher, Datafolha, said.

Datafolha interviewed 2,912 Brazilians from 181 municipalities in all regions of the country with voters aged 16 and older. Lula also leads among Brazil’s women population, those in the lower income bracket, among black voters and the Catholic group.

However, with Brazil’s men population, Datafolha noted that there is a tie between Lula and Bolsonaro for votes.

Lula and Bolsonaro will go head-to-head again on October 30, after which, Brazil will know who its next President will be. In the first election, Lula emerged with 48.3% while Bolsonaro polled 43.3%. The other nine candidates did not make enough of an impact to matter in the race.

The oil and gas sector is looking to see what either candidate will do with the state-run Petrobras. Over recent years, operations have been shaky. Fluctuating fuel prices, fired Chief Executive Officers (CEOs) and allegations of corruption were rife.

And Bolsonaro has been talking of privatising Petrobras. But things could take a 180° turn with Lula in charge.

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