The oil supply outlook for non-OPEC producers for 2023 has hiked to 66.9 million barrels of oil per day (b/d) with Guyana, Brazil, the United States, Norway and Canada leading the pack.
Its estimate for global oil demand in 2023 has increased by 100,000 b/d, as rebounding air traffic and China’s demand push consumption to record highs. The gains will accelerate over the year, however, rising to 2.6 million b/d year-on-year in the fourth quarter, from just 710,000 b/d in the current quarter, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates.
The global economic outlook has gained from China’s economic momentum since COVID-19 restrictions were lifted. The IEA said Chinese mobility mostly stabilised after January’s “remarkable bounce”, adding that Chinese air traffic with domestic flights is now well above pre-pandemic levels.
Global oil supply jumped 830,000 b/d in February, according to the IEA, as the US and Canada rebounded strongly from winter storms and other outages. For the year, the IEA expects world oil production to grow 1.6 million b/d.
In January, OPEC said it expected Guyana to add about 90,000 barrels of crude per day to its current output. This would put Guyana’s 2023 output to 32 million barrels more than the 101 million barrels produced in 2022 by the ExxonMobil-operated projects.
The Payara project is expected to achieve first oil this year. A naming ceremony for Prosperity floating production, storage, and offloading (FPSO) vessel was held in Singapore, at the beginning of February.
The Liza Phases One and Two projects started the year with production at 140,000 b/d and 220,000 b/d respectively. The Liza Destiny and Unity had a combined production average of 297,000 b/d for 2022. Production is expected to be maintained at or above nameplate for most of the year. Hess said the co-venturers are considering some downtime in the fourth quarter at Liza Phase Two to facilitate optimisation of the Liza Unity.