As commercial discoveries continue to increase offshore Guyana, more projects will come online, generating an unprecedented inflow of revenue to the new oil producing South American country, which Norway-based Rystad Energy said could top US$130 billion.
“If all discoveries were to be developed, you`re looking at, in the next 20 years, over $130 billion dollars flowing into Guyana from the production sharing and royalty agreements alone,” Schreiner Parker, Rystad Energy’s Vice President for Latin America and the Caribbean told OilNOW. “Now, of course that can increase significantly with more finds that will certainly be developed, so it’s an incredible bonanza that this country has been blessed with.”
US$130 billion is equivalent to approximately GY$26 trillion, a gamechanger for the nation of just over 750,000 people. With these projections, hydrocarbon earnings will dwarf all other sources of revenue given the size of Guyana’s small non-oil revenue base.
Dr. Zainab Usman, a senior fellow, and director of the Africa Programme at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, D.C. said during a recent visit to Guyana that the country is positioned to produce a lot of oil and earn a lot of revenue for each of its citizens. She said Guyana currently produces the equivalent of roughly 24 barrels per citizen every year. When output gets to 750,000 b/d by 2025, Dr. Usman said this could be the equivalent of 238 barrels per citizen for the year, higher than all of the current top 10 producers.
And this is just the beginning. U.K. based consultancy group Wood Mackenzie says its analysis show phased development will lift output to over 1.1 million b/d by 2028. Guyana, it said, will become just the 11th nation in oil’s history to reach the million b/d milestone.
Rystad Energy says the Guyana-Suriname basin has overtaken Brazil’s pre-salt play as South America’s exploration hotspot since ExxonMobil found the basin-opening Liza discovery in 2015. Since then, the basin has delivered more than 13 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe), about 10 times the volumes found in Brazil during the same period.
“Guyana and Suriname may just be the most exciting exploration hot spots in the world, and maybe in history,” Parker said.