Guyana could receive more than US$10 billion annually from the Stabroek Block by 2030, according to ExxonMobil Guyana Limited Vice President and Business Services Manager John Colling, who cited projections from the International Monetary Fund during a press briefing on the company’s 2025 financial performance on Tuesday, July 9.
Colling made the comment while defending the fiscal framework governing the Stabroek Block, amid questions from reporters about ring-fencing and the pace at which Guyana’s share of oil revenues is expected to grow.
“If we look specifically at what we have seen in the Stabroek Block, the petroleum agreement has resulted in a very world-class development of the block,” Colling said.
He said that since first oil in 2019, the Stabroek Block has moved rapidly into large-scale production, with output exceeding 900,000 barrels per day by the end of 2025. Over the same period, he said more than US$8.7 billion had been contributed to Guyana’s Natural Resource Fund.
Colling said the government’s take is expected to rise as more development costs are recovered and production continues to increase.
“As costs continue to be recovered and production continues to increase, that petroleum agreement will result in the government receiving over US$10 billion a year by 2030, per IMF projections,” he said.
He added that the timeline could be accelerated if oil prices remain high.
“That very well may be accelerated, and likely will be accelerated, by higher oil prices, which we are currently seeing as a result of events in the Middle East,” Colling said.
Guyana’s oil revenues are derived primarily from royalty and its share of profit oil under the 2016 Stabroek Block Production Sharing Agreement. Under the deal, up to 75% of monthly production can be used for cost recovery, with the remaining profit oil split equally between the government and the contractors. The contractors are ExxonMobil Guyana, Hess Guyana Exploration and CNOOC Petroleum Guyana.
The scale of the projected revenue increase is tied to the continuing buildout of the Stabroek Block, where multiple floating production, storage and offloading vessels are already producing and additional developments are expected to push output higher before the end of the decade.
Exxon has said the block is on track for 1.7 million barrels per day of installed production capacity by 2030, with expected production of around 1.3 million barrels per day. The company has also said that its development of the block is generally meeting or exceeding long-term expectations.
The revenue forecast comes as Guyana continues to debate whether the 2016 contract delivers a fair return, particularly because the agreement does not include ring-fencing. Critics have argued that the absence of ring-fencing allows costs from newer developments to be recovered against producing projects, delaying the point at which Guyana receives a larger share of revenues.
Asked whether Exxon has conducted an analysis of the pros and cons of ring-fencing, Colling said that fiscal terms are examined during negotiations with host governments, but he had not personally seen such an analysis.
“I personally have not seen an analysis of the pros and cons of ring-fencing or the nature of how those particular negotiations took place,” he said.
Colling maintained that the current agreement has enabled rapid development of the Stabroek Block and substantial revenue flows to the government. He said that as the upfront cost bank is reduced, Guyana’s share should continue to increase.
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At the end of 2025, Exxon said more than US$55 billion had accumulated in the Stabroek Block cost bank, of which US$51 billion had been recovered. Colling said US$4.5 billion remained to be recovered by ExxonMobil Guyana and its co-venturers.
With stronger oil prices, he said recovery of those upfront costs could occur sooner than originally anticipated, potentially in the second half of 2026.
The projection of more than US$10 billion a year by 2030 would mark a major jump in annual inflows to the Natural Resource Fund and would further deepen the link between Guyana’s fiscal outlook and the performance of the Stabroek Block.
It also raises the stakes for public debate on how the country manages oil revenues, audits recoverable costs, and prepares for the long-term economic impact of becoming one of the world’s fastest-growing offshore oil producers.
