IEA says Guyana will achieve explosive oil supply growth through 2028 

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By 2028, Guyana is expected to provide approximately 1.3% of global oil demand. By then, the ExxonMobil-led consortium holding the Stabroek Block will have invested approximately US$54 billion to develop projects offshore the South American country.

While global oil demand growth may taper off from 2022 to 2028, as expected by the International Energy Agency (IEA), certain sectors, notably petrochemical feedstock and air travel, will continue to bolster oil consumption. Thus, by 2028, the global oil demand is anticipated to touch 105.7 million barrels daily. Within this framework, Guyana’s role is indisputable. The country’s capacity to help meet global oil demand is steadily increasing. 

In its Oil 2023 (Analysis and Forecast to 2028), the IEA said that Guyana’s vast reserves, estimated at a mammoth 11 billion barrels of recoverable oil equivalent, started being tapped since the commencement of production in 2019 with the Liza-1 project which initially had the capacity to produce 120,000 barrels per day. With debottlenecking, the capacity is now 150,000 bpd. The subsequent Liza-2, initiated in 2022, added 220,000 bpd, with plans for increase to 250,000 bpd by the end of 2023. With first oil from the Payara project expected by the end of 2023, Guyana’s production is expected to increase to 620,000 bpd by early 2024.

The IEA said that with three more phases by 2027, Guyana’s production capacity is set to reach around 1.2 million barrels daily.

That number is ExxonMobil’s 2027 target, but the company has been conservative in estimating its production levels. Considering the nameplate capacities of each project and production optimisation activities, production of 1.37 million bpd is expected in 2027. This may also be a conservative estimate since it does not include output which would come from a seventh project, currently being contemplated. This could propel the daily production beyond 1.6 million barrels.

Amid these developments, Guyana is expected to achieve a groundbreaking milestone by 2025: becoming the world’s largest oil producer per capita. With further production increments post-2025, Guyana’s leadership in per capita oil production will be unequivocally solidified.

Meanwhile, contrasting scenarios unfold in the broader Latin American domain. The region grapples with declining oil supplies due to diminished investments and a paucity of new ventures. While countries like Peru and Ecuador aim to revitalise their oil sectors, the IEA sees their strategies as nebulous. Moreover, it noted that the new Colombian government has opted to suspend fresh exploration activities.

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