Another 1.4 million bpd of non-OPEC supply growth expected in 2024

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Projections for non-OPEC liquids supply have taken a favourable turn, indicating an anticipated expansion of 1.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2023, the August Global Supply Report highlights. 

Guyana, Brazil, the United States, Norway, Kazakhstan and China will be the primary drivers of the liquids supply growth in 2023. On the other hand, the largest anticipated decline is projected to come from Russia.

In January, OPEC said it expected Guyana to add about 90,000 barrels of crude per day to its current output. This would put Guyana’s 2023 output to 32 million barrels more than the 101 million barrels produced in 2022 by the ExxonMobil-operated projects. The Payara project is expected to achieve first oil this year.

OPEC’s eyes are on Guyana but the answer remains no | OilNOW 

The Liza 1 and 2 projects started the year with production at 140,000 b/d and 220,000 b/d respectively. They are now collectively producing close to 400,000 b/d. 

Guyana’s oil production could close 2023 over 500,000 bpd | OilNOW

Uncertainties continue to cloud the outlook for 2023. Factors such as the potential of US shale oil output and the occurrence of unplanned maintenance activities may influence the final outcome. 

Looking ahead to 2024, the expectation of non-OPEC liquids supply remains consistent, with a projection of 1.4 mb/d growth, holding steady from previous assessments. For the coming year, the United States, Canada, Guyana, Brazil, Norway, and Kazakhstan are expected to serve as the main drivers behind the projected increase in liquids supply. This growth is primarily attributed to the ongoing ramp-up of existing projects in these countries. Conversely, Mexico and Azerbaijan are anticipated to experience the largest declines in production during this period.

The OPEC non-gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids segment is also poised for growth. Forecasts indicate an increase of 46 thousand barrels per day (tb/d) in 2023, bringing the average to 5.4 million barrels per day. Looking further into 2024, this segment is expected to expand by an additional 65 tb/d, reaching an average of 5.5 million barrels per day.

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